Total cookie/cookie bar revenue was estimated to reach $6.4B in 2011. This represents sales growth of 2.7% for the year. Future demand for cookies is strongly tied to household disposable income. When consumer incomes dropped during the recession in 2009 & 2010 demand for cookies dropped. As the economy recovers we are seeing an increase in cookie demand. The future demand for cookies are forecasted to drop for the following reasons...
1) consumer sentiment is still low due to looming recession in US
2) shifting consumer demand to more healthy snack choices
3) decrease in the average number of children per household will cause demand to soften
Addressable Market
Based on 2008 study by Mitel, under-45's are significantly more likely than over-45s to buy fresh-baked cookies or pre-made dough. Adults aged 18-44 are very interested in trying new cookie types and flavors, but interest fades after 45. Women are somewhat more likely than men to experiment with types, flavors and brands. Research also showed that consumers do not view healthfulness as a necessary attribute when choosing cookies. So although overall demand may be shrinking because some consumers are choosing to skip cookies all together, the remaining cookie eaters overall do not necessarily consider the healthfulness. There has been success in the 100-calorie cookie packet as of late. This is the cookies market attempt at addressing the health-conscious consumer but also the every growing time-poor consumer. CookIns will nicely address the 18-44 year old women and men that like to save some time while freshly baking our all-natural cookies.
Realistic Opportunities vs Competition
Although the cookie market is dominated by single brand names like Oreo, Chips Ahoy, and Pepperidge Farm, private label cookie brands make up 15% of the total demand. CookIns will not likely be able to compete with the strong brands of Nabisco, Little Debbie, and Pepperidge Farm due to their strong brand recognition and loyalty. CookIns do stand a good chance in locations where these brands names are not carried like Whole Foods, Trader Joes, and Stew Leonards.
Targeted Selection of "Winnable" Market Opportunities
CookIns are targeted to individuals and families that want freshly baked all-natural cookies but don't necessarily have the time associated with actually mixing cooking dough, baking, and cleaning.
Of the $960M private label brans market, what do you see as your achievable share? Within this sub-market, who are you competing with? How does ready-to-bake items compare to ready-to-eat?
ReplyDeleteIt seems like active, on the go crowd is your target, do you have an approach to address the market shift to healthy or all natural ingredients market?
The total market seems promising, as well as the private label sub-market. I'm interested in seeing how the winnable market turns out for CookIns.
A quick internet search for pre-made cookie dough brings up many alternatives to your product. In the end it may be all about taste and not just convenience. You may be able to win with superior taste and texture, as I saw numerous reviews of other products that were less than complimentary. As much as you may promote your trays are recyclable, many people would suggest that a cookie tray can be used over and over again. Is it that inconvenient to have to wash it... along with all the other dishes? Taste and price may be what it is all about.
ReplyDelete